[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 12 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 157/111 153/108
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jun was R0. Solar regions
AR3323(S08W71, beta) and AR3327(S16W22, beta) produced minor
low level C class flares. Solar region AR3323 has almost completely
decayed as it approaches the south west solar limb. Solar region
AR3327 is currently the largest solar region on the solar disk
and consists of numerous decaying small spots. There are currently
6 regions on the solar disk. There is currently no solar region
on the solar disk with high flare potential, with the background
solar X-ray flux currently at C1. Solar region AR3331(S23E20,
beta-gamma) has shown development in its intermediate spots and
has increased in magnetic complexity, but the areas of more complex
magnetic field structure appear very small and weak at this stage,
in addition the trailer spot of AR3331 appears to be decaying.
Solar region AR3329(N23W20, beta) also continues to decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0, with the slight chance of an isolated
R1 flare over 12-14 Jun. No significant Earth directed CMEs were
observed over the UT day. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 15nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +15 to -10 nT. The solar wind speed on UT day
11-Jun increased and ranged between 318 to 454 km/s and is currently
near 431km/sec. The solar wind total IMF field (Bt) increased
after 10/2315UT and IMF Bz increased and fluctuated southward
along with a gradual increase in solar wind speed during the
first half of 11-Jan. The minor enhancement in solar wind parameters
is attributed to coronal hole wind streams. An additional minor
increase in solar wind speed may also be contributed by a very
weak glancing blow from a recent CME on 13-Jun. A small isolated
equatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere,
just east of the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22201111
Cocos Island 4 22211111
Darwin 6 33201112
Townsville 6 33201112
Learmonth 5 23211111
Alice Springs 5 32201111
Gingin 4 22201121
Canberra 3 22101101
Hobart 3 22202100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 11012100
Casey 6 23311210
Mawson 9 33221223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1012 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 8 G0
13 Jun 11 G0
14 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 11-Jun
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. A mild increase in
geomagnetic activity was observed during the first half of the
UT day 11-Jun due to a weak coronal hole wind stream(s). G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 12-14 Jun. A very weak CME influence
may mildly increase geomagnetic activity on 13-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 11-Jun were fair
to normal. HF conditions are expected to continue to be fair
to normal over 12-14 Jun, with mildly degraded conditions most
likely during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Jun were
mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Strong
enhancements were observed at Cocos Island. Spread-F was observed
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted values over 12-14 Jun. Degraded HF conditions may be
experienced during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 25200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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