[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 11 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 157/111 160/114 157/111
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jun was R0, with the largest
flare a C4.5 at 10/1851UT from AR3327(S16W09, beta). This region
which consists of numerous small spots is now in decline. Solar
region AR3323(S08W64, alpha) has now almost completely decayed.
Solar region AR3229(N24W09, beta) is showing further decline
in its trailer spots. Solar region AR3331(S23E31, beta) which
produce an R1 flare yesterday was stable, with no further development
of intermediate spots. There are currently 7 regions on the solar
disk. There is currently no solar region on the solar disk with
high flare potential. Solar activity is expected to be R0, with
the chance of an isolated R1 flare over 11-13 Jun. No significant
Earth directed CMEs were observed over the UT day. Solar prominence
activity with no apparent associated CME, was observed on the
south east limb S25-40 during the interval 10/1805-2000UT in
US GONG H-alpha imagery with associated emission in SDO094/131
imagery and a small increase in background US GOES X-ray flux
was observed from 10/1800UT. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Jun
was at background levels and ranged between 290 to 341 km/s and
is currently near 315km/sec. The solar wind may increase slightly
during 11-12 Jun due to coronal holes now in the solar north
west and south west quadrants. A minor increase in solar wind
speed may also be contributed by a very weak glancing blow from
a recent CME on 13 Jun. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is
visible in the eastern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10110010
Cocos Island 1 11100010
Darwin 1 10110011
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 1 10110010
Alice Springs 0 01000010
Gingin 1 10000120
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 2 11210011
Mawson 4 11101123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 9 G0
12 Jun 13 G0
13 Jun 11 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 10-Jun
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-13 Jun. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
may be experienced during 11-13 Jun due to minor coronal hole
wind streams and a very weak CME influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 10-Jun were fair
to normal. HF conditions are expected to continue to be fair
to normal over 11-13 Jun, with mildly degraded conditions most
likely during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Jun were
mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Strong
enhancements were observed at Cocos Island. Spread-F was observed
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted values over 11-13 Jun. Degraded conditions may be experienced
during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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