[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 10 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 1711UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 163/117 157/111 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jun was R1, due to an M2.5
flare from solar region AR3331(S21E38, beta). Surprisingly, this
region has an open simple spot/magnetic configuration with a
few small intermediate spots. In GONG H-alpha imagery the optical
flare showed a brief parallel ribbon structure 09/1708-1728UT
but the regions location well to the east means that any possible
subsequent weak solar proton enhancement wasn't observed by the
US GOES satellite. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk. The most notable region currently on disk, AR3327(S17E04,
beta-gamma) consisting of approximately 26 spots, is showing
spot redistribution and both development and decay. This region
only produced some minor C flares. Previously large solar region
AR3323(S09W46, beta-gamma) has significantly decayed. Solar region
AR3329(N23E03, beta) which was recently growing is showing some
decay in its trailer spots, though with an increase in small
intermediate spots. The more complex magnetic configuration in
AR3327 is small and weak. Solar activity is expected to be R0,
with the chance of an isolated R1 flare over 10-12 Jun. No significant
Earth directed CMEs were observed over the UT day. A south east
directed CME was observed associated with the M2.5 flare from
AR3331. Event modelling confirms this east directed CME is predominately
an Earth miss, with only a slight chance of the upper edge of
the CME reaching the Earth around 13/2200UT as it passes to the
side and under the Earth. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +11 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Jun
was mostly near background levels and ranged between 266 to 340
km/s and is currently near 306km/sec. A period of minor southward
IMF conditions was observed 09/1514-1935UT. A slight increase
in solar wind speed is possible over 10-11 Jun due to a coronal
hole wind stream from a small hole in the northern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10100011
Cocos Island 1 11000011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 1 10000011
Alice Springs 1 00100011
Gingin 1 10100011
Canberra 0 00000011
Hobart 1 10000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 21100011
Mawson 7 13000134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 10 G0
11 Jun 10 G0
12 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 09-Jun
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 10-12 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 09-Jun were fair
to normal. HF conditions are expected to continue to be fair
to normal over 10-12 Jun, with fair conditions most likely during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Jun were
mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted values over 10-12 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 49300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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