[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 9 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 163/117 157/111
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jun was R0. The largest
flares of the period were a C7.2 at 1024 UT from AR3327 (S17E15,
beta-gamma-delta) and a C4.8 from a region beyond or on the western
solar limb, possibly AR3325 (N11W81). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspots on the solar disk. AR3327 continues to develop, although
has become quiet over the previous 24 hours. AR3323 (S09W32,
beta) went through some minor growth and decay, but is overall
stable. AR3332 (S08E63, alpha) grew during the period, but has
a simple magnetic configuration and is stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 09-11 Jun. A small filament may have ejected
some material around 08/0053 UT to the west, as soon in SOHO
images from 08/0125 UT, but is not Earth directed. A small filament
eruption was observed in H-alpha and GOES SUVI imagery from 2125
UT in the southwest quadrant. A CME can be observed in STEREO-A
imagery only. Analysis of this event is ongoing, but preliminary
analysis suggests an Earth impact is unlikely. No other significant
CMEs were observed over the UT day. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Jun
was mostly near background levels and ranged between 320 to 450
km/s, briefly. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at
background levels on 09-Jun, before possibly increasing over
10-11 Jun due to a coronal hole wind stream in the northern solar
hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12111000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 2 12101001
Townsville 3 22111011
Learmonth 3 22111010
Alice Springs 1 11101000
Gingin 3 22102010
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 1 11011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 10021000
Casey 4 23211010
Mawson 7 32213121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 5 G0
10 Jun 14 G0, slight chance G1
11 Jun 11 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 08-Jun
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. A CME first observed
on 04-Jun has likely glanced past Earth with only minimal effects.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 09-11 Jun,
with a possible isolated period of G1 later in the period due
to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
11 Jun Fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day were normal to
fair. Normal conditions were observed at most latitudes during
local day hours, and some degraded conditions were observed at
lower latitude regions during local night hours. HF conditions
are expected to continue to be normal to fair over 09-11 Jun,
with fair conditions most likely during local night hours and
more likely on 10-11 Jun. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
10 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on
7 June and is current for 8-9 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Jun were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region, with some northern region sites having
depressions up to 15% during local night hours. Spread-F was
observed at Brisbane and Townsville during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values over 09-11
Jun, with some mild depressions possible during local night hours
up to 15-20%. Degraded ionospheric conditions may persist in
low latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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