[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 8 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.7 1146UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Jun reached R1, with the
largest flare of the day being M4.7 at 1146 UT from AR3327 (S17E29,
beta-gamma). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3327 is currently the most flare active, and
has produced several high-level C-class flares in addition to
the M4 flare. This region has grown in the past 24 hours. AR3329
(N23E28, beta) has also grown over the UT day but has not yet
produced any significant flares. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1,
with a chance for R2 flares over 08-10 Jun. A filament eruption
was associated with a C7 flare at 07/0646 UT from AR3327. A CME
was observed from this region from 07/0700 UT, but is not expected
to be geoeffective. No other significant CMEs were observed on
the UT day. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Jun was steady,
and ranged between 320 to 417 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +4 to -4 nT. There is a coronal hole in the northern
solar hemisphere currently near the central meridian. This coronal
hole may increase solar wind speeds by 10-Jun, but otherwise
mostly background levels are expected over 08-09 Jun. There is
a small chance a CME first observed on 04-Jun may cause glancing
impacts on 08-Jun, but no significant activity is expected from
this event other than a slight increase to solar wind speeds.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 01100011
Learmonth 1 10010001
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12111000
Mawson 4 21101023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 3202 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 8 G0
09 Jun 5 G0
10 Jun 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on 07-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 08-10 Jun, with a possible isolated period of G1
on 10-Jun due to a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal-fair Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 07-Jun were fair
to normal. Fair conditions were observed at all latitudes, particularly
in middle latitudes, during local night hours. Normal conditions
were observed during daylight hours. HF conditions are expected
to be fair to normal over 08-10 Jun, with fair conditions likely
during local night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
09 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
10 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on
7 June and is current for 8-9 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-Jun were near predicted monthly values to
20% depressed during local nights hours in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed at Brisbane, Darwin, Townsville and also
Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic-E was observed at Canberra.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values during daylight
over 08-10 Jun, with depressions up to 20% continuing during
local night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 76600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list