[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 7 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jun was R0, with no significant
flare activity. The largest flare of the period was a C7.5 flare
at 06/1900UT from AR3327(S17E46, beta). This region is currently
growing. Solar region AR3323(S09W04, beta) whilst the largest
region on disk is in decay and along with the other solar regions
on the disk was flare quiet. Smaller solar region AR3329(N23E45,
beta) is showing growth. A new region has rotated onto the disk
at solar latitude S22, and another quite small region is emerging
on disk in the northeast solar quadrant. These new regions appear
minor at this stage. The other more obvious solar region AR3321(S16W22,
beta), a large spot with nearby very small spots that appeared
to show an increase in number late in the UT day 05-Jun, then
they declined late in the UT day 06-Jun. Other solar regions were
mainly relatively stable. A minor solar region in the northwest
solar quadrant has decayed. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1,
with a chance for low-level isolated R2 flare activity (AR3327
and possibly AR3329 if region development continues). No significant
Earth directed CMEs were observed. A reasonably large, behind
the east solar limb and non Earth directed CME was observed in
LASCO C2 imagery from 06/0348UT. The solar wind speed on UT day
06-Jun was variable and ranged between 339 to 424 km/s, and is
currently at 400km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) reached 9nT and the north-south IMF component range
was +8 to -8nT.The IMF Bz was mildly southward 06/0008-0130UT.
A small coronal hole is visible at solar latitude N30 just
crossing the solar central meridian. Another coronal hole at S40 is
approaching the solar central meridian. The moderately high solar
latitude of these holes together with their smaller area suggests
any solar wind influences will be mild.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 22111000
Cocos Island 3 22121000
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 3 22111001
Learmonth 2 21111000
Alice Springs 2 22111000
Gingin 2 21211000
Canberra 2 12011000
Hobart 1 11011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 10021000
Casey 5 33221000
Mawson 6 33222000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 6 G0
08 Jun 13 G0
09 Jun 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 06-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-09 Jun. There is a chance for a mild increase
in activity on 08-Jun from a component of a CME associated with
a filament eruption on 04-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
09 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 06-Jun were fair
to normal. Fair conditions were observed at middle to high latitudes
during local night hours. HF conditions are expected to be fair
to normal over 07-09 Jun, with fair conditions likely during
local night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Jun were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 07-09 Jun. Isolated fadeouts
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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