[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 6 09:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jun was R0. The largest
flare of the period was C4.0 at 05/0254UT, from AR3323(S09E09,
gamma). Solar region AR3320(N10W16,beta-gamma) produced a C3.5
at 05/0638UT. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Whilst solar regions AR3320, AR3321(S16W09,
beta-gamma), AR3323 and AR3327(S17E58, gamma) exhibit some degree
of magnetic complexity no significant flares have been observed
in the past 24 hours. Solar regions AR3323 and AR3327 are currently
the largest and most complex spot groups on the solar disk, with
AR3327 showing notable growth. AR3323 is perhaps showing slight
decay in its trailer spots and redistribution of the intermediate
spots, exhibiting a more open spot configuration towards the
end of the UT day. Other solar regions were mainly relatively
stable. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1, with a chance
for low-level isolated R2 flare activity. No significant CMEs
were observed. Two very narrow westward CMEs were observed in
LASCO C2 from 05/1512UT and 05/1848UT but are not considered
associated with Earth side solar activity. The solar wind speed
on UT day 05-Jun was variable and ranged between 327 to 457 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached
8nT and the north-south IMF component range was +8 to -5nT. The
solar wind parameters are expected to be similar for 06-Jun,
with slightly enhanced solar wind speed and an overall declining
trend. Two small coronal holes are visible in the eastern solar
hemisphere at solar latitudes N30 and S40.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11120021
Cocos Island 2 10120020
Darwin 3 11220021
Townsville 4 21220022
Learmonth 3 11220021
Alice Springs 2 11120020
Gingin 2 10220010
Canberra 2 11110011
Hobart 1 11010010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 11121121
Mawson 4 22221101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3123 1142
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 6 G0
07 Jun 6 G0
08 Jun 13 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 06-08 Jun. There is a chance for a mild increase
in activity on 08-Jun from a component of a CME associated with
a filament eruption on 04-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 05-Jun were fair
to normal. Fair conditions were observed at middle to high latitudes
during local night hours. HF conditions are expected to be fair
to normal over 06-08 Jun, with fair conditions likely during
local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on
5 June and is current for 5-6 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Jun were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region during the local day. Depressions of 15-20%
with spread F were observed during local night. Weak ionospheric
phase scintillation was very briefly observed at Weipa at approximately
05/1300UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over
06-08 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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