[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 5 09:31:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 163/117 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jun was R0. The largest
flare of the period was C8.7 at 0344 UT, which came from AR3323
(S08E20, beta-gamma). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3323 continues to develop its intermediate
spots and shows the highest magnetic complexity of all sunspots
on the disk currently. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1, with a chance
for low-level isolated R2 flares primarily from AR3323, although
this region has been relatively quiet recently. A large solar
filament that was centered near S30W40 erupted from 04/0904 UT,
seen in H-alpha imagery. A CME was observed from the southwest
quadrant of the Sun from 04/1048 UT, associated with the filament
eruption. This CME may have a weak glancing impact on 08-Jun,
although it is not expected to cause any significant geomagnetic
disturbance. No other significant CMEs were observed during the
UT day. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Jun was mostly near
background levels and ranged between 310 to 388 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 12 nT and
the north-south IMF component range was +10 to -11 nT. Bz was
oriented southward from 04/1650-1850 UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be near background levels over 05-07 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 21221121
Cocos Island 4 11221121
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 7 21231222
Learmonth 7 21321231
Alice Springs 5 21221121
Gingin 5 21220131
Canberra 5 11231021
Hobart 5 11231021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 00252021
Casey 7 22231131
Mawson 9 22321133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 6 G0
06 Jun 6 G0
07 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 05-07 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 04-Jun were normal
to fair. Fair conditions were observed at most latitudes due
to persistent sporadic-E during local night hours, and mostly
normal to normal-fair conditions were observed during local day
hours. HF conditions are expected to be normal to fair over 05-07
Jun, with fair conditions likely during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jun were
mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Sporadic-E
was observed at most sites during local night hours and range-spread
was observed at most mid to high latitude sites. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 05-07 Jun, with some mild depressions
possible during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 14500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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