[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 4 09:30:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jun was at R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently 7 numbered sunspots on the
solar disk. AR3323 (S08E33, beta-gamma) has shown some development
in its intermediate and trailer spots, although minor. All other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 04-06 Jun. No significant CMEs were observed
on UT day 03-Jun. A large solar filament is centered near S30W30,
which is considered geoeffective. While the filament appears
stable it will be monitored closely for any eruption. The solar
wind speed on UT day 03-Jun was on a general declining trend
and ranged between 438 to 297 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +7 to -4 nT. Two coronal holes which featured in yesterday's
forecast have failed to connect with Earth, and an increase in
solar wind speed from these sources is therefore unlikely now.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background levels
over 04-06 Jun, although mild increases are possible on 04-Jun
if there are any coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 2 22110001
Townsville 4 22210012
Learmonth 1 11110001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22210000
Mawson 3 21110003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 2220 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 8 G0
05 Jun 6 G0
06 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 04-06 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Poor-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Hf communication conditions on UT day were mostly normal
to fair. Degraded conditions were observed at low latitude regions,
particularly during local night hours. HF communication conditions
are expected to be normal to fair over 04-06 Jun, with fair conditions
persisting in low latitude regions. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies on UT day 03-Jun were mostly
near predicted values in the Australian region. Strong range
spread was observed in Brisbane, Townsville and Cocos Islands
during local night hours. Sporadic-E was observed at Learmonth
and Cocos Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 04-06 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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