[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 3 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0241UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jun reached R1, with an
isolated M1.2 flare at 0242 UT from AR3324 (N12E03, beta). There
are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3319
(S19W52, beta-gamma) and AR3323 (S09E43, beta-gamma-delta) have
shown growth over the past 24 hours, particularly in their intermediate
spots. AR3323 was responsible for the second largest flare of
the day, a C6 at 2242 UT. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1 with
a chance of R2 over 03-05 Jun. No CMEs were observed on 02-Jun.
There is a large filament centered near S30W15, currently near
a geoeffective location. While it has not shown signs of erupting
at time of writing, it wil be closely monitored. The solar wind
speed on UT day 02-Jun was on a general decreasing trend and
ranged between 450 to 352 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to mildly increase on 03-Jun due to a small equatorial coronal
hole wind stream before declining to background levels by 05-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11200001
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12200001
Learmonth 3 12210101
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 3 22210011
Canberra 1 11200000
Hobart 1 11200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11310000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 17 53321025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 13 4332 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 12 G0, chance G1
04 Jun 15 G0, chance G1
05 Jun 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with isolated periods of G1
at Mawson. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
03-05 Jun. There is a slight chance of an isolated period of
G1 over 03-04 Jun due to a small equatorial coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Jun Fair Normal-fair Fair
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day were mostly normal
to fair. Degraded conditions were observed at low latitudes and
high latitudes, particularly at local night hours. HF communication
conditions are expected to be normal to fair over 03-05 Jun,
with degradations possible due to an anticipated coronal hole
wind stream over this period. Low and high latitudes expected
to continue to be affected. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
HF communication conditions on UT day 01-Jun were mostly normal
to fair. Degraded conditions were observed during local night
hours for middle to high latitudes. Poor conditions may have
been experienced in the polar cap ionosphere at times. HF communication
conditions are expected to be generally normal to fair during
02-04-Jun, with degradations possible during local night hours
on 02-Jun and 04-Jun for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on
1 June and is current for 1-3 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 02-Jun were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Spread-F was observed at many low latitude sites during
local night hours; Norfolk Island, Townsville and Brisbane being
affected. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over
03-05 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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