[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 2 09:31:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: R0
Flares: None.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jun was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3323(S09E59,beta-gamma-delta) has rotated more
into view and appears as a moderately large and complex spot
group. This region produced minor C class flaring following yesterdays
M4.2 flare. Three other solar regions of interest, AR3315(S17W69,
beta), AR3319(S19W36, beta) and AR3321(S15E45, beta) also didn't
produce significant flare activity, with the largest flare of
the day a C9.1 at 01/0041UT from AR3315, which is now well west
on the solar disk. AR3315 continues to show decline in its trailer
spots. AR3319 showed redistribution in its trailer spots, with
perhaps small intermediate spots appearing, but with no significant
change in area. AR3321 has a large leader spot, with small spots
developing to its east. Other spot groups are small and uninteresting.
No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed. A faint narrow
CME to the north west was observed from 01/0048UT in LASCO C2,
possibly related to solar filament activity in the north west
quadrant and is assessed as not significantly Earth directed.
A plasma eruption with ejecta is visible in SDO094 imagery on
the southwest limb at 01/1415-1530UT with a narrow CME to the
south west and is not considered Earth directed due to solar
limb location. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level,
with the chance of an R2 event due to AR3323. There are currently
10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with two small groups
about to rotate off disk in a days time. The solar wind speed
on UT day 01-Jun ranged between 385 to 507 km/s and is currently
near 438km/sec. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -9 nT, with mild fluctuations southward
during the UT day. A southern hemisphere coronal hole located
at a moderately high solar latitude (S40) and a small isolated
equatorial coronal hole are currently both west 15-20 degrees
of the solar central meridian. There are weak 27 day solar wind
recurrent patterns of increased solar wind speed of up to 500km/sec
for 02 and 04 June. Solar wind parameters suggest a possible
Earth entry into a weak solar wind stream 01/0430UT, with a brief
fluctuation in Bz southward and a small increase in total field
(Bt) at 01/0525UT. This minor increase in solar wind speed may
have already peaked.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22322211
Cocos Island 5 12311111
Darwin 6 22311211
Townsville 7 22322212
Learmonth 9 22322322
Alice Springs 5 22212211
Gingin 8 22222322
Canberra 5 22212211
Hobart 6 22222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 22334421
Casey 9 23322222
Mawson 50 65534374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 2231 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 13 G0, slight chance of G1
03 Jun 8 G0
04 Jun 15 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Jun. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, with G1-G3 periods
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected
over 02-04-Jun. There are weak 27 day geomagnetic recurrent patterns
for 02-Jun and 04-Jun, with a chance of an isolated G1 period
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 01-Jun were mostly
normal to fair. Degraded conditions were observed during local
night hours for middle to high latitudes. Poor conditions may
have been experienced in the polar cap ionosphere at times. HF
communication conditions are expected to be generally normal
to fair during 02-04-Jun, with degradations possible during local
night hours on 02-Jun and 04-Jun for middle to high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on
1 June and is current for 1-3 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-Jun were near predicted monthly values. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 02-04-Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list