[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 May 23 issued 2340 UT on 31 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 1 09:40:48 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
Corrected copy: flare list.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0438UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1226UT possible lower European
M1.0 2208UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.2 2252UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-May reached R1 due to an
M4.2 flare from AR3323(S05E72, beta) and low level M-class solar
flares. Additional spots are rotating onto the disk behind AR3323.
This region is currently located well to the east in solar longitude
with any subsequent flare associated CMEs likely to miss the
Earth. Solar region AR3319(S19W24, beta-gamma) produced the later
M1 event (SDO304/GONG H-alpha 31/1228UT). This region has recently
shown rapid growth, though this now appears to have more recently
slowed. Solar region AR3321(S15E57, beta) appears as a medium
sized single spot and has been flare quiet. The largest region
on disk AR3315(S17W56, beta) continues to show decay in its trailer
spots and only produced minor C flares and is now located quite
westward. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with
the chance of an R2 event due to currently flare active AR3323.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Other sunspot regions are relatively small. No significant Earth
directed CMEs were observed. On disk plasma motion in SDO304
imagery at 31/0937UT, N35W35, associated with small filament
activity did not appear to have an associated CME. A slow narrow
CME was observed to the southwest from 31/0136UT in LASCO C2
imagery but could not be correlated to on disk activity. The
solar wind speed on UT day 31-May ranged between 336 to 427 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -8 nT, with mild fluctuations southward during the UT day.
A large southern coronal hole located at a moderately high solar
latitude (S40) and a small isolated equatorial coronal hole are
currently both at solar central meridian. There are weak 27 day
solar wind recurrent patterns of increased solar wind speed of
up to 500km/sec for 02 and 04 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: G0
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11211132
Cocos Island 5 11121131
Darwin 4 11211122
Townsville 6 11221132
Learmonth 7 21221232
Alice Springs 4 10211032
Gingin 6 11211232
Canberra 4 01212121
Hobart 6 11212231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 7 00313321
Casey 9 23232222
Mawson 23 43431255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1011 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 6 G0
02 Jun 13 G0, slight chance of G1
03 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were generally observed in
both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 31-May, with
two periods of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 01-03-Jun. There are weak 27 day geomagnetic recurrent
patterns for 02-Jun and 04-Jun, with a chance of an isolated
G1 period on these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 31-May were mostly
normal. Degraded conditions were observed during local night
hours for middle to high latitudes. HF communication conditions
are expected to be generally normal to fair during 01-03-Jun,
with degradations possible during local night hours on 02-Jun
for middle to high latitudes. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-May were
near predicted monthly values. Strong spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. A fadeout impacting lower HF
frequencies was observed at Niue at 21/2300UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 01-03-Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 17900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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