[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 28 09:30:53 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0951UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 2235UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 162/116 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.9 flare at 27/0951UT produced by AR3376 (N24W89,
beta) and an M1.7 flare at 27/2235UT produced by AR3388 (S21E62,
beta). There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3376 was responsible for the first M-class
flare in the UT day. However this region has almost completely
rotated off the solar disk. AR3388 was responsible for the second
M-class flare of the day and appears stable. AR3386 (N11E49,
beta) is the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot region
on the solar disk, having shown development over the UT day.
So far this region has not produced any significant flares. AR3380
(S11E17, beta) and AR3384 (S16E33, alpha) also showed development
on 27-Jul. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
28-30 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Several
slow and faint CMEs were observed directed to the west and southwest,
but none are considered geoeffective. A large filament is visible
on the solar disk, looping from N17E45 to N20E23. This filament
is rotating towards a geoeffective position. The solar wind speed
declined over the UT day 27-Jul, ranging from 541 to 405 km/s,
and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline to background levels and remain there
over 28-30 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22221121
Cocos Island 5 23211120
Darwin 6 23221111
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 22221120
Alice Springs 5 22221121
Gingin 5 12211130
Canberra 3 22210110
Hobart 3 12211110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 22200010
Casey 6 23311120
Mawson 17 33333244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 24 4544 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 5 G0
29 Jul 5 G0
30 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 27-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 28-30 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 27-Jul were mostly
normal, with some minor degradations at high latitudes at the
start of the day, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Mostly
normal HF conditions are expected over 28-30 Jul. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on
26 July and is current for 26-28 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values, with enhancements of up to 20% in the northern Australian
region and up to 15% in the southern Australian region. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 28-30
Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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