[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 27 09:30:52 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0428UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.6 1037UT possible lower European
M2.0 1559UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 165/119 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.2 flare at 26/0428UT, an M4.6 flare at 26/1037UT
and an M2.0 flare at 26/1559UT. All M-class flares on 26-Jul
were produced by AR3376 (N24W75, beta-gamma). There are currently
ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one
unnumbered region. AR3376 is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk and was responsible for all
the M-class flares in the UT day. This region appeared stable
over 26-Jul and will rotate off the solar disk over 27-28 Jul.
AR 3380 (S11E31, beta) was responsible for multiple high C-class
flares over the UT-day and displayed minor decay in its trailer
spots. AR3384 (S16E47, beta) and AR3386 (N11E63, beta) both displayed
spot development over the UT day. An unnumbered region recently
rotated onto the solar disk and is at around N24E80, with beta
magnetic characteristics. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1
level on 27-Jul and at R0-R1 levels over 28-29 Jul. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A large filament is visible on the solar
disk, looping from N10E50 to N22E35. This filament is rotating
towards a geoeffective position. The solar wind speed on UT day
26-Jul was elevated and ranged from 404 to 587 km/s, and is currently
near 530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+10 to -13 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions
was observed from 26/0345-0925UT. A minor impulse in Bt was observed
at 26/0744UT. The minor impulse and overall enhanced solar wind
and IMF conditions are due to recent CME impacts from CMEs first
observed on 22-Jul and 23-Jul. These effects are expected to
wane over 27-29 Jul. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated on 27-Jul due to ongoing CME effects, and is expected
to slowly decrease towards background levels over 28-29 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 24423212
Cocos Island 9 24322121
Darwin 10 24322212
Townsville 12 24423212
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 14 25422212
Gingin 13 24423222
Canberra 13 24433212
Hobart 16 24443312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 31 34655421
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 43 46542465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2111 3235
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 10 G0
28 Jul 8 G0
29 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 26-Jul, with an isolated period of
G1 at Alice Springs. G2 conditions were observed at Macquarie
Island and Mawson, whilst G0 conditions were observed at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-29 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 26-Jul were mostly
normal with some degradations at mid-high latitudes, particularly
in the northern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
over 27-29 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on
26 July and is current for 26-28 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Jul in the northern Australian region were
generally near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of up to
40% were observed in the southern Australian region. Spread F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 27-29 Jul. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 97100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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