[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 26 09:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0204UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 2116UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 162/116 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.6 flare at 25/2116UT from AR3380 (S11E44, beta-gamma)
and an M1.5 flare at 25/0204UT from AR3376 (N24W62, beta-gamma).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3376 has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR3380 has decayed. AR3379
(N14W07, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots. An unnumbered
region recently appeared near S19W01 (beta) and has since showed
spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
26-28 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 25-Jul increased, ranging from 355 to 560
km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. A strong shock in the solar
wind was observed at 25/2154UT, indicative of the early arrival
of a CME first observed on 23-Jul. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +15 to -12 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions was observed from 25/1119-1450UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over 26-28 Jul due to ongoing
CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 11213223
Cocos Island 5 11211113
Darwin 6 22212113
Townsville 8 21213223
Alice Springs 8 12213223
Gingin 8 22203223
Canberra 7 11213223
Hobart 7 11213223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 00204323
Casey 9 23302223
Mawson 19 22322355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3200 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 18 G0-G1
27 Jul 10 G0
28 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 26-Jul due to the recent arrival of a CME first observed on
23-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-28 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 25-Jul were mostly
normal. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 26-Jul for
mid to high latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 27-28 Jul. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 26-28 Jul.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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