[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 25 09:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. The largest flare, a C9.1
at 24/0426UT, was produced by AR3372 (N24W93, beta) which has
now rotated over the western limb. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3380 (S11E60,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk and has shown some minor growth over the UT day. AR3376
(N24W47, beta) has exhibited spot development. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Jul. A proton enhancement is
currently being observed due to a farside event. S1 solar proton
conditions are possible on 25-Jul. A full halo CME was observed,
visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 24/1753UT. This
CME is considered farside and therefore not geoeffective. No
other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 24-Jul was stable, ranging from 370 to 450 km/s,
and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease on 25-Jul before increasing late on 26-Jul due to
an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 23-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22101012
Cocos Island 2 12111001
Darwin 3 22101012
Townsville 4 22101022
Alice Springs 3 22101002
Gingin 3 22101012
Canberra 2 12101011
Hobart 2 12101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Casey 7 33211112
Mawson 18 43211126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1011 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 8 G0
26 Jul 12 G0, chance G1
27 Jul 20 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 25-27 Jul, with a chance of G1 over 26-27 Jul due to an
anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 24-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 24-Jul were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 25-26 Jul,
with mild degradations possible during local night hours. Normal
to fair HF conditions are expected on 27-Jul for mid to high
latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jul 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jul 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on
22 July and is current for 23-25 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values to 20% enhanced in the southern Australian region. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Learmonth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 25-27 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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