[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 July 23 issued 2346 UT on 23 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 24 09:46:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several high C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3372 (N21W81, beta), AR3373 (N08W53, beta-gamma) and
AR3376 (N24W37, beta) were responsible for the largest C-class
flares of the UT day, with AR3373 responsible for the largest.
Of these regions, both AR3372 and AR3373 displayed decay in their
trailer spots on 23-Jul, whilst AR3376 was stable. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered
region has recently appeared on the solar disk at around S22W40
with beta magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 24-26 Jul. A slow north directed partial
halo CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 22/2124UT
and is associated with an eruption on the disk, visible in SDO,
GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery, from 22/2039UT at around N32E50.
Modelling indicates there is a chance of a glancing impact at
27/1000 +/- 12 hours. The slow speed and glancing nature of this
impact suggest any geomagnetic effects will be mild. A northeast
directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 23/0324UT and
a fast northeast directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 imagery
from 23/1148UT. Both of these CMEs have no associated on disk
activity and are not considered geoeffective. A faint partial
halo is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 23/1505UT.
This CME is associated with an eruption visible in SDO, GOES
SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 23/1419UT, due to a C5.2 flare
at 23/1444UT produced by AR3376. Modelling suggests this CME
has a geoeffective component which will impact Earth on 27/0100UT
+/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Jul was steady,
ranging from 391 to 484 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease slowly to background
levels over 24-25 Jul, an increase is possible late on 26-Jul
due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 23-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11112121
Cocos Island 3 12111120
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 4 11112122
Alice Springs 3 01202121
Gingin 5 11112131
Canberra 4 11112121
Hobart 4 11112121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00023110
Casey 6 22212221
Mawson 12 12212253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 4222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 5 G0
25 Jul 8 G0
26 Jul 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with one period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 24-26 Jul, with a chance of G1 on
26-Jul due to an anticipated impact early on 27-Jul from a CME
first observed on 24-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 23-Jul were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 24-26 Jul.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jul 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jul 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on
22 July and is current for 23-25 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 23-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values to 20% enhanced in the southern Australian region and
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced on 24-26 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list