[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 23 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 0337UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jul was at the R1 level,
with an M3.1 flare at 22/0337UT and an M1.0 flare at 22/0416UT.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3373 (N08W39, beta-gamma)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk and was responsible for the M1.0 flare at 22/0412UT, AR3372
(N21W68, beta) was responsible for the M3.1 flare at 22/0337UT.
Both of these regions appeared mostly stable over the UT day,
with AR3373 displaying some decay in its trailer spots. AR3374
(S12W36, beta) showed some development after almost vanishing
from the solar disk, however it remains small and magnetically
simple. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
An unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar disk
and is visible at S12E85 with unknown magnetic complexity, this
region was responsible for a C7.1 flare at 22/1101UT. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 23-25 Jul. The >10MeV
proton flux decayed to background levels over 22-Jul. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 22-Jul. A large west directed CME is visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 22/0400UT associated with
an eruption visible from 22/0347UT, concurrent with the M3.1
flare at 22/0337UT. Modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective
component and will pass in front of the Earth. A filament eruption
is visible from 22/1534UT in H-Alpha, GOES SUVI and SDO imagery
at around N18E20. No associated CME is visible in available imagery.
Further analysis will be performed if a CME eventuates. A narrow,
north directed CME is visible from 22/1912UT in LASCO C2 and
STEREO-A imagery. This is associated with coronal movement behind
the northern limb, visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 22/1759UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. A filament eruption
is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 22/2039UT
at around N32E50. A northeast directed CME is visible in LASCO
C2 imagery from 22/2124UT which may be associated with this eruption.
Further analysis will be performed when more imagery is available.
The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Jul increased slightly, ranging
from 387 to 478 km/s, and is currently near 460 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, with
a declining trend over the UT day, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease slowly to background levels over 23-25 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 32121001
Cocos Island 3 21121001
Darwin 4 32111002
Townsville 6 32222012
Alice Springs 5 32221001
Gingin 5 32221001
Canberra 6 32132001
Hobart 5 32132000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 21032000
Casey 9 43222211
Mawson 21 63321025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3122 2335
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 8 G0
24 Jul 5 G0
25 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region on 22-Jul, with isolated periods of G1 and
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 23-25 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 22-Jul were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 23-25 Jul.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jul 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on
22 July and is current for 22-23 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values to 25% enhanced in the southern Australian region and
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the northern
Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced on 23-25 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 81300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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