[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 22 09:30:52 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no large C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3373 (N08W25, beta-delta)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk and exhibited movement in its trailer spots over the UT
day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Jul.
The >10MeV proton flux was elevated over 21-Jul but below S0
conditions. The >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue to
decline to background levels and S0 conditions are expected over
22-24 Jul. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 21-Jul. A weak
shock in solar wind speed and IMF conditions was observed at
21/1927UT, likely due to the anticipated impact from a CME first
observed on 18-Jul. The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Jul increased
after the weak shock, ranging from 366 to 448 km/s, and is currently
near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -15 nT. A sustained period of -Bz began at 21/2046UT and
is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase
over the first half of 22-Jul following the weak shock observed
at 21/1927UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to
background levels over 23-24 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 23210112
Cocos Island 4 22200112
Darwin 6 23211112
Townsville 7 23211123
Alice Springs 5 23210112
Gingin 7 23310122
Canberra 5 23210012
Hobart 4 12211022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 11221111
Casey 9 33321212
Mawson 14 44311224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1101 1444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 12 G0, chance of G1
23 Jul 8 G0
24 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 21-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 22-Jul, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing effects
from a recently observed CME impact. G0 conditions are expected
over 23-24 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0105UT 18/07, Ended at 0335UT 20/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 21-Jul were mostly
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 22-Jul, with
a slight chance of mild degradations at high latitudes in the
second half of the UT day, due to geomagnetic activity from a
recently observed CME impact. Mostly normal HF conditions are
expected over 23-24 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values, with a chance
of mild depressions.
23 Jul 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jul 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Jul were
generally near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in the
southern Australian region and near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced in the northern Australian region. MUFs are expected
to be generally near predicted monthly values on 22-Jul, with
a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian region,
due to geomagnetic activity from a recently observed CME impact.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 23-24 Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 73600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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