[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 29 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 27/2235UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.1 1558UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 162/116 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jul was R1. An M4.1 solar
flare was observd at 1558 UT from sunspot region AR3376, which
is on currently just behind the western solar limb near latitude
N22. No other significant solar flares were observed on UT day
28-Jul. There are currently 11 numbered sunspots on the solar
disk. AR3380 (S11E04, gamma) and AR3386 (N11E37, gamma) have
both shown development over the past 24 hours, and all other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1, chance of R2 over 29-31 Jul. The chance
to observe solar flares may be lessened as AR3376 rotates further
out of view, but AR3380 and AR3388 may show increased flare potential
as they continue to grow. Associated with the M4.1 flare at 28/1558
UT was a proton flux enhancement and fast CME. The proton flux
has peaked before reaching the S1 threshold, but if AR3376 produces
further flares then an S1 event may occur. A CME was observed
from the northwestern limb from 1612 UT with an estimated speed
of +1500 km/s. This CME is not expected to be significantly geoeffective,
due to being directed to the west of the Sun. No other CMEs were
observed. A filament eruption was observed near N20E25, and coronagraph
imagery will be monitored for any subsequent CME. The solar wind
speed on UT day 28-Jul was on a gentle decline and ranged from
418 to 356 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to stay near background
levels over 29-31 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 3 10111122
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 4 11111122
Alice Springs 3 11001122
Gingin 4 01101132
Canberra 2 10001121
Hobart 2 00002120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00003110
Casey 5 12211122
Mawson 10 21211225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 5 G0
30 Jul 10 G0
31 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 28-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-31 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 28-Jul were mostly
normal with some degradations at low latitudes near local dawn
hours. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
29-31 Jul. A slight chance for polar cap absorption (PCA) may
cause some minor degradations to high latitude regions on 29-Jul.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Jul were
mostly near predicted values. Spread-F was observed at Perth
and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected to bear
near predicted values over 29-31 Jul. A slight chance for polar
cap absorption (PCA) due to a possible S1 event may cause minor
MUF depressions at high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 15200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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