[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 16 09:30:59 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0741UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0953UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1010UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 182/135
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to three low level M-class flares. The largest flare was
an M2.9 flare at 15/0741UT from AR3363 (S23W49, beta). There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3367 (N10W89, beta) is currently
rotating over the western limb and appears stable. AR3363 has
shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3373 (N10E54, beta) has
exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly in its
intermediate spots. An unnumbered region is visible at N19W16
(beta) and has shown some minor growth since appearing on the
solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
16-18 Jul, with a chance of R2. A filament eruption was observed
at the end of the previous UT day 14-Jul, visible near S23E12
in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 14/1840UT. This eruption was
associated with a C8.8 flare at 14/1844UT from AR3370 (S15W01,
alpha). A subsequent faint southward partial halo CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 14/1910UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is Earth-directed, with an arrival at Earth
on 17-Jul at 1200UT (+/- 12 hrs). A southwest CME was observed
in coronagraph imagery from 15/0751UT, associated with the aforementioned
M2.9 flare from AR3363. Modelling indicates this CME is not Earth-directed.
Two westward CMEs observed at 15/1650UT and 15/2013UT are both
not considered to be geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jul was
variable, ranging from 350 to 600 km/s, and is currently near
420 km/s. A shock was observed in the solar wind at 15/1026UT,
indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 16-18 Jul due to the arrival of a CME on 17-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 32131010
Cocos Island 3 22121000
Darwin 4 22121011
Townsville 6 32131012
Learmonth 5 31231010
Alice Springs 4 32121010
Gingin 4 31121010
Canberra 4 22131010
Hobart 4 21032010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 11052000
Casey 10 33332221
Mawson 13 53222023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 3442 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 10 G0
17 Jul 24 G1, chance G2
18 Jul 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 16-Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 17-Jul,
with a chance of G2 due to the expected arrival of a partial
halo CME first observed on 14-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 18-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 15-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 16-18
Jul with fair conditions possible at middle to high latitudes
on 17-Jul due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on
14 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in southern Australian
regions. Spread F was observed during local night hours across
the Australian region with stronger occurrences at higher latitudes.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 16-18
Jul, with enhancements of 15% on 16-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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