[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 17 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0826UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 1508UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.0 1748UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 184/137 182/135 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M4.0 flare at 16/1748UT from AR3363 (S20W62, beta-gamma).
Two additional low level M-class flares were also observed from
AR3372 (N24E12, gamma). There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and three unnumbered regions.
AR3363 is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk
and has shown slight decay in its trailer spots. AR3372 has shown
slight growth in its intermediate spots. AR3373 (N08E43, gamma)
has exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly
in its intermediate spots. Three unnumbered regions are visible
near to N09E36 (beta), N14E29 (beta) and N22W57 (beta). All unnumbered
regions have shown slight growth over the UT day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 17-19 Jul, with a chance of R2. S1
solar proton conditions were observed on 16-Jul. Further periods
of S1 conditions are possible on 17-Jul. Two halo CMEs were observed,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 16/0442UT
and 16/1341UT. Both of these CMEs are considered farside events
and not geoeffective. A southwest CME was observed, visible in
coronagraph imagery from 16/1753UT. This CME is associated with
the aforementioned M4.0 flare from AR3363. Modelling indicates
this CME is not geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Jul increased,
ranging from 330 to 490 km/s, and is currently near 440 km/s.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 16/1837UT,
indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +1 to -12 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions was observed from 16/1837-2241UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to increase over 17-19 Jul due to the arrival
of a CME on 17-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11100023
Cocos Island 2 01110022
Darwin 3 11100023
Townsville 3 11000023
Learmonth 4 21100023
Alice Springs 3 10000023
Gingin 4 20100023
Canberra 2 00000023
Hobart 3 10101023
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00000023
Casey 13 33422233
Mawson 20 32211056
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3213 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 24 G1, chance G2
18 Jul 12 G0
19 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 16 July and
is current for 17 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 16-Jul. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 17-Jul, with a chance of G2 due to the expected arrival
of a partial halo CME first observed on 14-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 18-19 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0625UT 16/07, Ended at 0855UT 16/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 16-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 17-19
Jul with fair conditions possible at middle to high latitudes
on 17-Jul due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values
to 35% enhanced in northern Australian regions. Spread F was
observed during local night hours across the Australian region
with stronger occurrences at higher latitudes. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Jul, with enhancements
of 15% on 17-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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