[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 15 09:31:01 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0936UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 182/135 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.0 flare at 14/0936UT from AR3363 (S20W34, beta-delta).
Several C-class flares were also observed. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and
one unnumbered region. AR3363 is the most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots
over the UT day. AR3372 (N24E38, beta) has shown minor growth
in its trailing spot. Newly numbered regions AR3373 (N08E70,
beta) and AR3374 (S10E73, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern
limb and both appear stable. An unnumbered region is visible
near S22E36 (alpha) and is stable and unremarkable. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 15-17 Jul, with a chance
of R2. A southwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 14/1011UT. This CME is associated with the aforementioned
M1.0 flare from AR3363 as well as a small filament eruption visible
in H-alpha imagery near to S28W25. Modelling indicates this CME
does not contain an Earth-directed component. A northeast-directed
CME was observed, visible in coronagraph imagery from 14/1313UT.
This CME is considered a farside event and therefore not geoeffective.
Several other CMEs were observed over the UT day, but none are
considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Jul
increased, ranging from 320 to 445 km/s, and is currently near
440 km/s. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 14/1525UT,
likely indicative of the arrival of the south-directed partial
halo CME first observed on 11-Jul. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +14 to -12 nT. Two sustained periods of southward
IMF conditions were observed from 14/0047-0520UT and 14/1623-1806UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 15-17
Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 22212332
Cocos Island 7 12211323
Darwin 7 22212322
Townsville 9 32222322
Learmonth 11 22222433
Alice Springs 8 22212332
Gingin 10 22212432
Canberra 7 22212322
Hobart 9 22213332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 21 23434452
Casey 11 32222333
Mawson 29 54432553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2110 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 16 G0, chance G1
16 Jul 10 G0
17 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 13 July and
is current for 13-15 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 15-17 Jul, with a chance of G1 on
15-Jul due to ongoing CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 14-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 15-17
Jul with fair conditions possible on 15-Jul due to increased
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on
14 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in southern Australian
regions. Spread F was observed during local night hours across
the Australian region with stronger occurrences at higher latitudes.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17
Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 10.9 p/cc Temp: 17400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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