[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 July 23 issued 2333 UT on 13 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 14 09:33:01 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 1920UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 203/154
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 202/153 198/150
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jul was at the R1 level,
with an M2.1 flare at 13/1920UT. In addition four C-class flares
at C7.5 level and above occurred in the 24-hour period. The majority
of the C-class flares and the M2.1 flare were produced by AR3372
(N24E52, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3372 remains the most significant sunspot region as
it has been responsible for the majority of R1 and higher flare
activity for the last few days. It is also the largest active
region and displayed movement of its trailer spots over the UT
day. AR3367 (N11W49, beta-gamma) developed over the UT day, whilst
AR3363 (S20W20, beta-gamma-delta) displayed development of its
trailer spots. Previously significant active region AR3361 (N24W75,
beta) decayed significantly over the UT day and is soon to rotate
over the western limb. All other numbered sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has recently
rotated onto the solar disk at around N06W80, it is not currently
possible to accurately determine the magnetic classification
of this sunspot region. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 14-16 Jul, with a chance of R3. No geoeffective CMEs
were observed over the UT day. A faint halo CME is visible in
LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 13/0724UT, there is no on
disk activity associated with this CME and it is currently considered
far side with further analysis on going. A series of west directed
CMEs are visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 12/2212UT,
13/1400UT, 13/1548UT and 13/1912UT. Most of these are associated
with activity on or behind the western limb and are not considered
geoeffective. The 13/1548UT CME is associated with an eruption
visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 13/1345UT at around
N28W80, . Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 13-Jul increased, ranging from 291
to 357 km/s and is currently near 345 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -8 nT. A pair of jumps in the solar wind
speed and IMF strength at 13/1109UT and 13/1551UT suggest the
anticipated glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Jul
has occurred. The solar wind speed is expected to remain low
over 14-15 Jul until an increase expected on 15-Jul due to an
anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 11-Jul. Solar
wind is expected to be elevated on 16-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21202210
Cocos Island 3 11212200
Darwin 5 21212211
Townsville 6 21212311
Learmonth 5 21202310
Alice Springs 4 21202211
Gingin 2 11101210
Canberra 2 11101200
Hobart 1 11101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22111111
Mawson 8 22202214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 8 G0
15 Jul 25 G1-G2
16 Jul 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 13 July and
is current for 13-15 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-Jul. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Jul. G1-G2 conditions
are expected on 15-Jul, due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 11-Jul. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 16-Jul
due to continuing activity from the anticipated 15-Jul impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 13-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 14-16
Jul with the chance for mild degradations on 16-Jul due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity on 15-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on
12 July and is current for 12-14 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours across the Australian region with stronger occurrences
at higher latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 14-16 Jul with a chance for depressions at high latitudes
on 16-Jul, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 15-Jul.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 20300 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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