[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 13 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.8 11/2215UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 0445UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0514UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.9 0855UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 188/141 188/141
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jul was at the R2 level,
with 4 M-class flares occurring over the 24-hour period. An M1.3
at 12/0031UT, an M1.3 at 12/0432UT, an M1.3 at 12/0514UT and
an M6.9 at 12/0855UT. The majority of these flares, including
the largest of the day were produced by AR3372 (N24E62, beta),
AR3361 (N24W65, beta) also contributed one M-class flare. There
are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3372 is the most significant sunspot region as
it has been responsible for the majority of R1 and greater flaring
since it appeared on the solar disk. Its true magnetic complexity
and spot development is difficult to determine due to its proximity
to the east limb. AR3363 (S20W10, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest
sunspot region and has shown development in its trailer spots
over the UT day. AR3361 was responsible for an R1 flare over
the last 24 hours but has exhibited slight spot decay. All other
numbered sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 13-15 Jul, with
a chance of R3. No geoeffective CMEs were observed over the UT
day. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Jul was low and ranged
from 356 to 287 km/s, and is currently near 300 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain low until an anticipated glancing
impact from a CME, first observed on 10-Jul, arrives late on
13-Jul. The solar wind speed is then expected to be elevated
over 14-15 Jul. Another enhancement is expected on 15-Jul, due
to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 12-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12101111
Cocos Island 2 11101110
Darwin 3 12101111
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 4 12211121
Alice Springs 3 12101111
Gingin 4 22201121
Canberra 2 11101111
Hobart 3 11211110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 11222110
Casey 5 33211000
Mawson 13 43322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2231 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 20 G0-G1
14 Jul 15 G0-G1
15 Jul 25 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 11 July and
is current for 13 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Jul. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13-Jul due to an anticipated
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Jul. G0-G1 conditions
are expected on 14-Jul due to continued geomagnetic activity
from the 13-Jul impact. G1-G2 conditions are expected on 15-Jul
due to another anticipated CME impact from a CME first observed
on 11-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 12-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 13-15
Jul with the chance for mild degradations on 14-Jul due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity on 13-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on
12 July and is current for 12-14 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at several Australian sites with stronger occurrences
at higher latitudes. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 13-15 Jul with a chance for mild depressions at high
latitudes on 14-Jul, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
on 13-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 20700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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