[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 12 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1435UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1612UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M6.8 1808UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 1929UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.8 2215UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 208/159 204/155
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jul was at the R2 level,
due to an M6.8 flare at 11/1808UT and an M5.8 flare at 11/2215UT,
both of which were from newly numbered AR3372 (N24E76, beta).
Several low level M-class flares were also observed over the
UT day, the majority of which were produced by AR3372. Due to
its proximity to the eastern limb the magnetic complexity of
AR3372 is presently difficult to determine, but is highly likely
to be more complex than beta. There are currently twelve numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3363 (S20E04, beta-delta)
is the largest region on the solar disk and has shown growth
in its trailer spots over the UT day. AR3367 (N11W25, beta-gamma)
has shown growth in its leading spot whilst its intermediate
spots have decayed. AR3366 (S12W63, beta) and AR3368 (S19W62,
beta) have shown growth in their leader spots. AR3370 (S15E52,
beta) has exhibited growth in its intermediate spots over the
UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
The background level of X-ray flux has increased to high C-class
levels over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be at the
R2 level over 12-14 Jul, with a chance of R3. A faint halo CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery
from 11/1648UT. No obvious on-disk source is associated with
this CME, nor does it appear to be associated with any of the
flares over the UT day. This CME is therefore not considered
geoeffective. A south-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 11/1924UT. This CME
is associated with a filament eruption, visible in H-alpha imagery
near S40E10. Modelling indicates this CME is geoeffective, with
an impact to Earth's magnetosphere on 15-Jul at 0600UT (+/- 12
hours). No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 11-Jul was stable, ranging from 305
to 340 km/s, and is currently near 335 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels on 12-Jul then increase over
13-14 Jul due to the expected arrival of a CME on 13-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11211111
Cocos Island 2 11201110
Darwin 3 11211111
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 3 11211111
Alice Springs 2 01211100
Gingin 4 11211121
Canberra 2 11211100
Hobart 2 10211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 00322100
Casey 5 22221121
Mawson 18 42432244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2201 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 5 G0
13 Jul 18 G1
14 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 11 July and
is current for 13 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 11-Jul. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Jul. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 13-Jul due to the arrival of a CME
first observed on 10-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 14-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 11-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal on 12-Jul
and 14-Jul. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 13-Jul
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on
10 July and is current for 10-12 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at several Australian sites. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 12-14 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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