[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 11 09:30:59 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0355UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 2218UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 192/144 190/143 188/141
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M2.3 flare at 10/0355UT from AR3366 (S12W50, beta)
and an M1.4 flare at 10/2218UT from AR3367 (N11W11, beta-gamma).
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3366 has shown growth in its leading spot over
the UT day. AR3367 has exhibited spot development, particularly
in its intermediate spots. AR3363 (S20E18, beta) remains the
largest region on the solar disk and is stable. Newly numbered
AR3370 (S15E66, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb
and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 11-13 Jul, with a chance of R2. A west-directed partial
halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery from 10/0400UT. This CME is associated with the aforementioned
M2.3 flare from AR3366. Modelling indicates this CME contains
an Earth-directed component, with a glancing impact to Earth's
magnetosphere expected on 13-Jul at 14:00 (+/- 12 hours). An
additional west-directed CME was observed at 10/1200UT, however
this is considered a farside event and not geoeffective. A north-directed
CME observed at 10/1800UT is also from a farside source. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 10-Jul declined, ranging from 325 to 375 km/s, and
is currently near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 11-13 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21111100
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 3 21111101
Learmonth 2 21111100
Alice Springs 3 22111101
Gingin 2 11111100
Canberra 2 11012000
Hobart 2 11022000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 4 22211110
Mawson 10 33112242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 5 G0
12 Jul 5 G0
13 Jul 18 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-12 Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 13-Jul due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 10-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 10-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 11-12
Jul. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 13-Jul due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on
10 July and is current for 10-12 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values, with depressions of up to 15%
during local night in the northern Australian region. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at several Australian
sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 11-13 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 45200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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