[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 10 09:31:14 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Jul was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently eleven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3360 (N23W43, beta),
AR3361 (N24W22, beta-gamma-delta), AR3367 (N11E04, beta) all
showed spot development over the UT day along with newly appeared
regions AR3368 (S19W32, beta) and AR3369 (S18W20, beta). AR3363
(S20E33, beta) is the largest sunspot region on the solar disk
but appears stable and is not magnetically complex. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Jul. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed over the UT day. Several narrow and faint
CMEs were observed over he UT day, directed to the northwest
and southwest. The majority of these are considered far side
events. A pair of small filament liftoffs occurred from 9/1406UT
at around N48W20, visible in GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. A
faint northwest directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 from 9/1712UT.
This CME is not currently considered to have a geoeffective component,
further analysis is ongoing. The solar wind speed on UT day 9-Jul
was steady, ranging from 414 to 371 km/s, and is currently near
400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain light
to moderate over 10-12 Jul. An equatorial coronal hole has been
approaching a geoeffective location but has decreased significantly
in size over the last few days. This coronal hole will enter
a geoeffective position over 11-12 Jul, but is not expected to
have a significant impact on the solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 00100111
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 01100112
Learmonth 1 00100111
Alice Springs 1 00100011
Gingin 1 00000111
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12100111
Mawson 6 10102233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 4211 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 5 G0
11 Jul 5 G0
12 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 9-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 10-12 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 9-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal on 10-12
Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 9-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values,
with depressions of up to 20% during local night in the northern
Australian region. Spread F was observed during local night hours
across the Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 10-12 Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 67100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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