[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 9 09:31:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-Jul was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently ten numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR3361 (N26W09, beta-gamma-delta)
was responsible for the largest C-class flares of the UT day.
AR3361 is also the most magnetically complex sunspot region on
the solar disk and showed development over the UT day as did
AR3366 (S12W22, beta) and newly appeared region AR3367 (N11E17,
beta). AR3363 (S20E46, alpha) is the largest sunspot region on
the solar disk but appears stable and is not magnetically complex.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 9-11 Jul. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed over the UT day. The solar
wind speed on UT day 8-Jul declined, ranging from 475 to 396
km/s, and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain light to moderate over 9-10 Jul with a mild increase
possible from 9-Jul onwards due to high speed wind stream effects
from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. An increase in
solar wind speed is expected late on 11-Jul due to an equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21110000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 3 21110111
Learmonth 2 22110000
Alice Springs 1 21100000
Gingin 2 21110000
Canberra 1 21100000
Hobart 2 211000--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 31110000
Casey 4 32211001
Mawson 7 43221100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 3334 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 8 G0
10 Jul 5 G0
11 Jul 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 8-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 9-11 Jul, with a chance of G1 on 11-Jul due
to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole approaching a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 8-Jul were mostly
normal to fair. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 9-11 Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on
7 July and is current for 7-9 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 8-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values, with depressions of up to 20%
during local night in the northern Australian region. Spread
F was observed during local night hours. Significant sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 9-11 Jul. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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