[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 8 09:31:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 0629UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 7-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M4.0 flare at 7/0629UT from AR3359 (S24W22, beta).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3361 (N26E03, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most magnetically complex sunspot region on the solar
disk and showed development over the UT day. AR3363 (S20E58,
beta) is the largest sunspot region on the solar disk but appears
stable and is not magnetically complex. AR3365 (S37W19, beta)
and AR3366 (S12W09, beta) have both recently appeared on the
solar disk and showed development over the UT day. AR3359 produced
the only flare of note on 7-Jul, although this region decayed
over the UT day. A small unnumbered region is visible at around
E03S23 with alpha magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 8-10 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed over the UT day. A southwest directed CME is visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 7/0612UT associated with
a small filament lift off visible in SDO and H-Alpha imagery
from 7/0327UT at around W55S26. Modelling indicates this CME
is not geoeffective. Two west directed CMEs are visible in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 7/1024UT and 7/1825UT. Coronal movement
behind the west limb is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery
from 7/1004UT. Both of these CMEs are considered far-side events,
modelling indicates no geoeffective component from the first
CME, analysis is ongoing for the second. The solar wind speed
on UT day 7-Jul was variable, ranging from 454 to 550 km/s, and
is currently near 465 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -9 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF
conditions was observed from 7/0645UT - 7/1830UT due to high
speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole. The
solar wind speed is expected to decline slightly on 8-Jul with
a mild increase possible over 9-10 Jul due to high speed wind
stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal hole approaching
a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 23333233
Cocos Island 8 22232222
Darwin 10 22232233
Townsville 13 33333232
Learmonth 13 23333233
Alice Springs 13 23333233
Gingin 14 23333234
Canberra 11 22333232
Hobart 14 22344232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 20 22454333
Casey 17 44332143
Mawson 48 54443467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2223 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 18 G0-G1, chance of G2
09 Jul 15 G0, chance of G1
10 Jul 13 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island and periods of G1-G3 observed
at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2
are expected on 8-Jul due to the chance of a late impact from
a CME first observed on 4-Jul and expected to impact on 7-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions with a slight chance of G1 are expected
over 9-10 Jul due to high speed wind stream effects from a southern
hemisphere coronal hole approaching a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 7-Jul were mostly
normal to fair due to high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole. Degraded HF conditions for middle to
high latitudes are possible over 8-9 Jul due to the possible
arrival of a CME first observed on 4-Jul. HF conditions are expected
to be mostly normal on 10-Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on
7 July and is current for 7-9 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 7-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours, particularly at higher latitudes. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 8-10 Jul. Mild depressions
may be experienced after local night on 8-Jul and on 9-Jul for
southern Australian region if expected geomagnetic activity eventuates
on 7-Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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