[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 7 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1050UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.0 flare at 06/1049UT from AR3354 (N16W99, beta-gamma)
which is now completely behind the western limb. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and
two unnumbered regions. AR3361 (N26E17, beta-gamma) is the most
magnetically complex region and has exhibited spot development
over the UT day, particularly in its trailer spots. AR3358 (S13W05,
gamma) has shown some minor spot growth. Newly numbered AR3363
(S21E70, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb and so
far appears magnetically simple and stable. An unnumbered region
visible at N23E62 (beta) has shown some minor growth since appearing
on the solar disk. An additional unnumbered region at S37W03
(beta) is stable and unremarkable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed over the UT day. A filament eruption was observed,
visible in H-alpha imagery from ~N25E43 at 06/2107UT. A subsequent
CME is yet to be observed, however further analysis will be conducted
when additional imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed
on UT day 06-Jul increased, ranging from 395 to 490 km/s, and
is currently near 485 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions was observed from 06/0905-1019UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over 07-09 Jul due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from a northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22132212
Cocos Island 5 21232101
Darwin 6 22132112
Townsville 6 22132211
Learmonth 7 22232212
Alice Springs 6 22132112
Gingin 7 22232212
Canberra 6 12132211
Hobart 6 22132211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 01152101
Casey 9 23232222
Mawson 23 43323336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2101 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 28 G1, chance G2
08 Jul 14 G0
09 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 4 July and
is current for 7 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Macquarie Island and an isolated period
of G2 observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 07-Jul, with the chance of isolated G2 periods due to the
arrival of a CME first observed on 04-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 08-09 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 06-Jul were mostly
normal. Degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes are
expected on 07-Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first
observed on 04-Jul. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 08-09 Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was occasionally observed during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 07-09
Jul. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours over 07-08 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME.
Mild depressions may be experienced after local dawn on 08-Jul
for southern Australian region if expected geomagnetic activity
eventuates on 07-Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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