[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 6 09:31:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1859UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.0 flare at 05/1859UT from AR3354 (N16W92, beta-gamma).
AR3354 has now rotated over the western limb. There are currently
six numbered sunspots regions visible on the solar disk and one
unnumbered region. AR3361 (N23E32, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown growth in its leader spot over the
UT day. AR3360 (N23E10, beta) has exhibited minor spot development
in its intermediate spots. A new unnumbered region is currently
rotating over the eastern limb at ~S21E89 (alpha). This is likely
returning region AR3342 which previously produced R1 level flaring.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Jul. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 05-Jul was stable before increasing late in the UT
day, ranging from 340 to 445 km/s, and is currently near 415
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -5 nT. A northern hemisphere coronal hole has now crossed
the solar central meridian and may influence the solar wind speed
on 08-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 3 01111112
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 3 11101122
Alice Springs 3 11101112
Gingin 3 20100122
Canberra 1 10001111
Hobart 1 10000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 4 12201121
Mawson 5 23111121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 5 G0
07 Jul 28 G1, chance G2
08 Jul 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 4 July and
is current for 7 Jul only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-Jul. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Jul. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 07-Jul, with the chance of isolated
G2 periods due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 04-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 05-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal on 06-Jul
and 08-Jul. Degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes
are expected on 07-Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME
first observed on 04-Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was occasionally observed during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08
Jul. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours over 07-08 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME.
Mild depressions may be experienced after local dawn on 08-Jul
for southern Australian region if expected geomagnetic activity
eventuates on 07-Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 22700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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