[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 4 09:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0653UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jul was at the R1 level
due to an M1 flare from solar region AR3358(S11E33, gamma). Solar
region AR3358 is currently the most flare active region and also
produced five C class flares. This region is now declining after
earlier showing growth. The UT day began with declining solar
X-ray flux from yesterdays X1 flare. No solar proton event followed
the X1 flare. Large solar region AR3354(N12W64, beta-gamma-delta)
which produced the X1 flare was relatively quiet producing only
C class flaring. This region is now approaching the north west
solar limb and has been mostly stable with some decline evident
in trailer spots, though assessment of region evolution is now
more difficult due to limb proximity. Solar regions AR3359(S21E34,
beta-gamma) and AR3360(N23E37, beta) produced C class flares.
Solar regions AR3360(N23E37, beta) and AR3357(S07W08, beta) appear
to be growing, with AR3360 producing a C8.9 at 03/2112UT. Solar
region AR3359(S21E34, beta-gamma) leader and trailer spots have
grown, but intermediate spots have declined. There are six numbered
solar regions on the visible solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 04-05 Jul, then R1 on 06-Jul with the
departure of AR3354. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. A small solar filament
erupted from S35E55 at 03/1553UT, but no CME was associated.
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Jul was variable, ranging from
380 to 457 km/s, and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to slowly decline to background levels over 04-06
Jul. Coronal holes are visible in the northeast and southeast
solar quadrants with 27 day recurrent patterns suggesting a moderate
increase in solar wind speed from 08-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 01110001
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 4 21211112
Learmonth 3 20210111
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 2 11100112
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 22211122
Mawson 10 32201234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 1211 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 5 G0
05 Jul 5 G0
06 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 04-06 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 03-Jul were mostly
normal. HF communications over the North Pacific Ocean were likely
to have been impacted by a fadeout late in the UT day on 03-Jul.
HF conditions are expected to be normal over 04-06 Jul, with
mildly degraded conditions possible during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on
2 July and is current for 2-4 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at east coast sites. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 04-06 Jul. Mildly degraded HF conditions
may be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible. A strong fadeout was observed at Niue 03/2310-04/0030UT
in association with yesterdays X1 flare.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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