[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 July 23 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 3 09:31:02 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0235UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.0 2313UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jul was at the R3 level,
due to an X1.0 flare at 02/2313UT from AR3354 (N12W52, beta-gamma).
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3354 (N12W52, beta-gamma-delta)
remains the largest and most magnetically complex region and
has shown growth in its intermediate spots. AR3358 (S11E46, beta-delta)
and AR3359 (S21E46, beta-gamma) have both exhibited spot development
and increased in magnetic complexity over the UT day. AR3357
(S07E21, beta) has also shown some spot growth over the 24-hour
period. An unnumbered region recently appeared at ~N05E40 (beta)
and is growing. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 03-05 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. A filament eruption was observed,
visible in H-alpha imagery at 02/0953UT in the solar southeast
quadrant. However, no subsequent CME was observed following this
eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Jul decreased slightly,
ranging from 400 to 490 km/s, and is currently near 435 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 03-05 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11122100
Cocos Island 1 11011000
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 11121102
Learmonth 3 11122100
Alice Springs 1 01111100
Gingin 3 11122100
Canberra 2 01012100
Hobart 2 01022100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00022100
Casey 5 13212111
Mawson 8 32222132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2100 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 5 G0
04 Jul 5 G0
05 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 03-05 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 02-Jul were normal.
HF conditions are expected to be normal over 03-05 Jul, with
mildly degraded conditions possible during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 87
Aug 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on
2 July and is current for 2-4 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 02-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of 15% were observed
in southern Australian regions during local night hours. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart and Perth.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 03-05
Jul. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 271000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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