[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 2 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2223UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.1 flare at 01/2223UT from AR3359 (S20E66, beta).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3354 (N12W37, beta-gamma-delta)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk and has shown growth in its leading spot. Despite its size
and magnetic complexity, AR3354 has remained relatively flare
quiet. AR3359, which produced the aforementioned M1.1 flare,
recently appeared on the solar disk and is growing. AR3356 (S06E36,
beta) and AR3357 (S06E36, beta) appeared in the southeast solar
quadrant early in the UT day and have continued to grow since.
AR3358 (S12E64, beta) has exhibited spot development over the
UT day. Two unnumbered regions are visible at N23E64 (alpha)
and S09E81 (alpha). The region at N23E64 has shown growth whilst
the region at S09E81 appears stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 02-04 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Jul decreased,
ranging from 435 to 510 km/s, and is currently near 460 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 02-04 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 22100011
Learmonth 2 21100001
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Gingin 2 21100001
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 6 23310112
Mawson 7 24110032
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3132 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 10 G0
03 Jul 5 G0
04 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 01-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-04 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 01-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 02-04 Jul,
with mildly degraded conditions possible during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 87
Aug 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values.
Depressions of 15% were observed in Northern Australian regions
during local night hours. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at several Australian sites. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 02-04 Jul. Mildly degraded
HF conditions may be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 266000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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