[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 1 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jun was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3354 (N12W26, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has exhibited
spot development in its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3354
produced all the C-class flares observed, the largest being a
C5.7 at 30/1003UT. AR3345 (N06W74, alpha) has shown some recent
growth but remains magnetically simple and unremarkable. Two
unnumbered regions have recently rotated over the eastern limb
at S15E75 (alpha) and N22E72 (alpha). Both these regions appear
to be stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
01-03 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 30-Jun increased, ranging from 435 to 565
km/s, and is currently near 495 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 01-03 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22233100
Cocos Island 4 21222100
Darwin 6 22223101
Townsville 6 22133101
Learmonth 6 22233100
Alice Springs 5 22132100
Gingin 4 22222100
Canberra 6 22133100
Hobart 6 22133100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 22234100
Casey 7 33222101
Mawson 18 54334211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 3334 2443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 17 G0, slight chance G1
02 Jul 10 G0
03 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 01-03 Jul, with a slight increase in geomagnetic
activity possible on 01-Jul due to a recent small solar filament
eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 30-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 01-03 Jul,
with mildly degraded conditions at times during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes on 01-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
29 June and is current for 29 Jun to 1 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 15% were observed
in Northern Australian regions during local night hours. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 01-03 Jul. Mildly degraded HF
conditions may be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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