[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 5 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1235UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jul was at the R1 level
due to an M1 flare from solar region AR3354(N14W79, beta-gamma).
This region also produced at C8 flare at 04/1928UT. The leader
spots of this region are now rotating over the western solar
limb. This region whilst showing some decay in its trailers may
return to the north east solar limb on 17-Jul. Small solar region
AR3361(N24E54, beta) is currently growing. Other solar regions
are stable or in decay. Solar region AR3358(S15E19, beta) produced
a minor C class flare. Solar region AR3360(N23E22, beta) produced
several C class flares, the largest a C7.2 flare at 04/0641UT.
With departing AR3354 solar region AR3359(S22E16, beta-gamma)
is currently the most complex region on the solar disk, this
region produced a C5.2 flare at 04/2133UT. This region has been
mostly stable with both minor development and decay in its intermediate
spots. There are six numbered solar regions on the visible solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, with the chance
of R2 levels over 05-Jul, then R1 on 06-07 Jul with the currently
departing solar region AR3354.No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A weak eastward
CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 03/2212UT associated with yesterday's
C8.9 flare from region AR3360. A semi-halo southeast CME was
observed from 04/0448UT in LASCO C2, and is likely to be correlated
with plasma motion at S30E30 just south of solar region AR3359
during the interval 04/0321-0433UT, visible in SDO304 and GOES195
imagery. H-alpha imagery was not available to confirm a possible
filament eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Jul declined,
ranging from 339 to 412 km/s, and is currently near 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4
nT. Coronal holes are visible in the northern solar hemisphere
near solar central meridian, and in the southern solar hemisphere
approaching solar central meridian, with 27 day recurrent patterns
suggesting a moderate increase in solar wind speed from 08-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12121000
Mawson 5 21121103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2111 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 5 G0
06 Jul 5 G0
07 Jul 28 G1, chance of isolated G2 periods
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 04-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 05-06 Jul. G1 conditions, with the chance of
isolated G2 periods are now expected on 07-Jul due to a recent
predominately southward directed CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 04-Jul were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 05-06 Jul.
Degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes are now are
expected on 07-Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jul in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was occasionally observed during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 05-07
Jul. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours on 07-Jul and on 08-Jul due to an anticipated arrival of
a CME. Mild depressions may be experienced after local dawn on
08-Jul for southern Australian region if expected geomagnetic
activity eventuates on 07-Jul. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 67700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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