[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 30 10:31:21 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jan was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flaring only. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3205 (S24W47,
beta) has shown minor growth in its leading spot, whilst its
trailer spots have decayed. AR3199 (N16W59, beta) has shown some
minor growth and is now approaching the western limb. Newly numbered
AR3206 (S22E60, beta) has exhibited spot development over the
24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
30-Jan to 01-Feb. A southward CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C3 coronagraph imagery from 29/0654UT. This CME is considered
a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. Two additional
CMEs are visible in STEREO-A imagery at 29/1938UT and 29/1953UT
to the southwest and northwest respectively. Further analysis
will be conducted when more imagery becomes available to determine
if either has a geoeffective component. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Jan
was elevated with a declining trend, ranging from 460 to 520
km/s, and is currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 30-31 Jan due to waning coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. A small coronal hole now in the western
hemisphere may influence the solar wind speed from 01-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21221201
Cocos Island 3 11211200
Darwin 5 21221202
Townsville 5 22221202
Learmonth 6 22221301
Alice Springs 4 21221201
Gingin 6 22221301
Canberra 3 11220201
Hobart 4 11221201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11101101
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 13 22322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 5 G0
31 Jan 5 G0
01 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-Jan to 01-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 30-Jan to 01-Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25-30% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites
during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 30-Jan to 01-Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local night,
affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 363000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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