[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 January 23 issued 0001 UT on 31 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 31 11:01:48 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jan was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flaring only. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three
unnumbered regions. AR3204 (N25W56, beta), AR3205 (S24W59, beta)
and AR3206 (S22E52, beta) all displayed spot development over
the UT day, although these regions are all small and not magnetically
complex. The other sunspot region is stable. The three unnumbered
regions are located at S12E78, S15W04 (both with alpha magnetic
characteristics) and N31E70. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 31-Jan to 2-Feb. Several CMEs were observed
over the UT-day, but none are considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Jan declined for the majority
of the day, before rising sharply from 30/1946UT. The speed ranged
from 453 km/s at the start of the day, to a trough of 374km/s
and a peak of 506 km/s. The solar wind speed is currently near
475 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -7 nT. A sustained period of negative Bz occurred from
30/1903UT to 30/2040UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 31-Jan to 1-Feb, with a decrease possible on 2-Feb
due to waning high speed wind stream effects from a group of
small coronal holes currently in a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111122
Cocos Island 3 11-20121
Darwin 4 2-111122
Townsville 6 21121123
Learmonth 4 21111122
Alice Springs 3 10111122
Gingin 4 21111022
Canberra 3 11110122
Hobart 2 11110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 10010012
Casey 9 23321123
Mawson 13 42122025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1020 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 8 G0
01 Feb 8 G0
02 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 31-Jan to 2-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 31-Jan to 2-Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Southern Australian
region on UT day 30-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced and MUFs in the Northern Australian region were
15-35% enhanced. Significant sporadic E was observed at Hobart,
Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin and Cocos Islands, mostly during local
night. Small amounts of sporadic E was observed across the Australian
region during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 31-Jan to 2-Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local night,
affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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