[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 29 10:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Newly numbered
regions AR3204 (N25W30, beta) and AR3205 (S24W33, alpha) have
both exhibited spot development since appearing on the disk.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 29-31 Jan. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A thin filament extending
from N08E15 to N25E30 was observed lifting off the solar disk
from 28/1738UT in H-alpha imagery. A subsequent CME is yet to
be observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed on UT day 28-Jan was stable, ranging from 500 to 570 km/s,
and is currently near 515 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 29-31 Jan due to waning coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22212322
Cocos Island 5 12211221
Darwin 7 22212312
Townsville 7 22212322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 7 22212321
Gingin 6 22212222
Canberra 6 22212222
Hobart 9 23322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 22224321
Casey 24 45622232
Mawson 24 44423354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1122 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 5 G0
30 Jan 5 G0
31 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1-G2 observed
at Casey and an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 29-31 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 29-31
Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Jan were 15-20% enhanced. Sporadic E was
observed at several Australian sites during local night. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 29-31 Jan. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting
lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 487000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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