[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 28 10:31:01 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jan was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. The largest flare was a C5.2 at 27/0748UT.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3199 (N16W33, beta) has exhibited minor spot
development over the 24-hour period. AR3200 (N23W03, alpha) has
shown some instability but is otherwise unremarkable. AR3202
(N11W74, beta) is stable and will soon rotate over the western
limb. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
The background level of X-ray flux has declined over the UT day
and is now at B-class levels. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 28-30 Jan. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 27-Jan decreased, ranging from 510 to 580 km/s, and is currently
near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over
28-30 Jan due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21222212
Cocos Island 4 11122211
Darwin 5 21122202
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 6 22222212
Alice Springs 5 22122202
Gingin 6 21222212
Canberra 6 21222222
Hobart 7 21222213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 11233321
Casey 23 55433323
Mawson 26 33334436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1232 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 8 G0
29 Jan 5 G0
30 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed
at Casey and an isolated period of G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 28-30 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 28-30 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Southern Australian region and near monthly
predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Northern Australian region.
Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites during local
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 28-30 Jan. Sporadic E is possible during
local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 11.3 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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