[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 27 10:31:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 25/2236UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.9 1306UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jan was at the R1 level,
with one M-class flare. An M2.8 produced at 26/1306UT by AR3192
(N15W84, beta) which has rotated over the limb. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Newly
arrived region AR3203 (N18E19, beta) showed sunspot development
over the UT Day. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
on 27-Jan and the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 28-29 Jan.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed. An eruption from over the
east limb was observed at around S18 from 25/1936UT in SDO imagery.
An associated CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery
from 26/0200UT. Modelling indicates that this CME has no geoeffective
component. However, the CME was large and fast, and suggests
an active sunspot region will be rotating on to the solar disk
over the next week. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Jan increased,
ranging from 419 to 568 km/s, and is currently near 530 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -7
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
27-Jan, with a decrease possible over 28-29 Jan due to waning
high speed wind stream effects from a pair of faint coronal holes
in the western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22322222
Cocos Island 6 12222221
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 9 22222332
Alice Springs 7 22322122
Gingin 9 22322232
Canberra 7 12322122
Hobart 8 12323221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 12254231
Casey 30 45633334
Mawson 19 35433332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0002 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 8 G0
28 Jan 8 G0
29 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jan. Isolated G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G2 at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-29 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 27-29 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jan were 15-25% enhanced in the Southern
Australian region and near monthly predicted values to 15% enhanced
in the Northern Australia region. Sporadic E was observed at
Perth, Norfolk Island, Brisbane, Learmonth, Niue and Townsville
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 27-29 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting
lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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