[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 26 10:30:52 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.7 1011UT possible lower European
M1.4 1701UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.0 2236UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jan was at the R1 level,
with three M-class flares. An M4.6 flare at 25/1011UT, an M1.3
flare at 25/1702UT and an M2.0 flare at 25/2236UT. The M4.6 and
M1.3 flares consist of multiple peaks and were both produced
by AR3190 (S14W91, beta) and AR3192 (N16W82, beta) combined,
the M2.0 flare was produced by AR3192. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. The most active regions, AR3190 and AR3192 will both
rotate off the solar disk over 26-Jan. AR3196 (N15W46, beta),
AR3197 (N20W36, beta) and AR3200 (N23E23, alpha) showed sunspot
development over the UT Day. All other numbered sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. The two unnumbered regions have
shown development and are located at N30E06 and N22E34, likely
with alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels on 26-Jan and the R0 level, with a chance
of R1 over 27-28 Jan. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. A narrow
southwest CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery from 25/1038UT.
This is likely associated with an eruption visible in GOES SUVI
imagery from 25/0940UT on the western limb at around S05. Modelling
indicates this CME has no geoeffective component. The solar wind
speed on UT day 25-Jan fluctuated, ranging from 369 to 550 km/s,
and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. Two sustained periods of negative
Bz occurred, one from 25/0913UT to 25/1007UT and another from
25/1132UT to 25/1443UT, there was a short period of positive
Bz during the second period. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 26-28 Jan as coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11122322
Cocos Island 4 11022221
Darwin 7 11123322
Townsville 8 21123322
Learmonth 6 21122321
Alice Springs 7 11123312
Gingin 6 11122321
Canberra 7 12122322
Hobart 6 12122312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 11123511
Casey 20 45433232
Mawson 15 23234324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 2100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 8 G0
27 Jan 5 G0
28 Jan 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were mostly
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Macquarie and Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 26-28 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 26-28 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan 115 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on
25 January and is current for 25-26 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jan were 20-30%
enhanced in the Southern Australian region and 20-50% enhanced
in the Northern Australia region. Sporadic E was observed across
the Australian region during local night. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced over 26-28 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting
lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 85300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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