[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 25 10:31:00 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a long duration
C9.4 flare at 24/1435UT from AR3192 (N18W65, beta). There are
currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3190 (S16W67, beta) has decayed and decreased in magnetic
complexity over the UT day. The region will soon rotate over
the western limb as will AR3194 (S24W82, beta). AR3197 (N18W21,
beta) and AR3200 (N21E36, alpha) have both exhibited minor spot
growth over the 24-hour period. Newly numbered region AR3201
(N24E60, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb and is
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Jan.
A narrow northwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 24/1524UT. This CME is possibly associated with
the long duration C9.4 flare from AR3192. Due to its northward
trajectory this CME is not considered to be geoeffective. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 24-Jan decreased, ranging from 390 to 510 km/s, and
is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 25-27 Jan due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Cocos Island 2 11121100
Darwin 4 21112111
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 22122111
Alice Springs 4 21112111
Gingin 5 21122211
Canberra 3 21121101
Hobart 3 21122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11122100
Casey 16 34532212
Mawson 11 33333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1100 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 10 G0
26 Jan 8 G0
27 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were mostly
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 25-27
Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 25-27 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Jan were 20-30% enhanced in Southern Australian
regions and 15-40% enhanced in Northern Australia. Sporadic E
was observed at several Australian sites. Spread F was observed
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced over 25-27 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 482000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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