[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 24 10:30:54 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 189/142
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jan was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. All flares were produced
by AR3190 (S16W54, beta-gamma-delta) and AR3194 (S24W69, beta).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3190 is the most
magnetically complex region and has exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3197 (N24E03, beta) and AR3198 (N27E16,
beta) have also shown growth over the UT day. AR3194 has decayed.
A new unnumbered region recently rotated onto the solar disk,
now located at N28E75 (alpha) and appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 24-25 Jan and R0-R1 levels on 26-Jan.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Jan increased, ranging from
465 to 570 km/s, and is currently near 520 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -8 nT. A period of sustained
southward IMF conditions was observed from 23/1200UT to 23/1512UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 24-26 Jan due
to the combined effects of possible glancing blows from CMEs
first observed on 19-Jan and 20-Jan, and high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 13223222
Cocos Island 6 22213112
Darwin 7 13223112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 9 23223222
Alice Springs 8 13223212
Gingin 8 22223222
Canberra 8 13223222
Hobart 10 13224222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 11105321
Casey 25 36543222
Mawson 20 24334344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2222 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 18 G0, chance of G1
25 Jan 10 G0
26 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January
and is current for 23-24 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jan. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were mostly observed in the Antarctic region, with
isolated periods of G1-G2 observed at Casey and an isolated period
of G1 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 24-26 Jan, with a chance of G1 conditions on 24-Jan due
to the combined effects of possible glancing blows from CMEs
first observed on 19-Jan and 20-Jan, and high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 24-26 Jan, with a slight chance of degraded conditions on
24-Jan due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
22 January and is current for 23-24 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 30% enhanced in the Southern Australian region
and 15-20% enhanced in the Northern Australian region. Sporadic
E was observed across the Southern Australian region and the
majority of the Northern Australian region during local night.
Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 24-26 Jan. There
is a slight chance of degraded conditions on 24-Jan due to possible
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. Sporadic
E is possible during local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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