[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:31:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1226UT possible lower European
M1.6 1702UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 199/151
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 200/152 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jan was at the R1 level
with with two M-class flares. An M1.1 flare at 22/1226UT and
an M1.6 flare at 22/1702UT. These flares were produced by AR3190
(S16W40, beta-gamma-delta) and AR3194 (S24W55, beta-gamma) respectively.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3190, AR3194, AR3196 (N12W09, beta) and AR3197
(N24E18, beta) all displayed spot development over the UT day.
AR3190 remains the largest sunspot region, and the most magnetically
complex, although AR3194 is also displaying a complex magnetic
structure. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
23-24 Jan and at R0-R1 levels on 25-Jan. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Jan was moderate,
ranging between 522 and 425 km/s, and is currently near 515 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7
nT. Several periods of sustained southward IMF conditions were
observed from 22/1439UT and 22/1943UT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain moderate until an increase occurs over 23-24
Jan, due to the combined effects of possible glancing blows from
CMEs first observed on 19-Jan and 20-Jan, and high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole, which is rotating
towards a geoeffective position. The solar wind speed is expected
to be elevated on 25-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21221222
Cocos Island 6 12221231
Darwin 6 21221222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 8 22222232
Alice Springs 6 21221222
Gingin 7 21221232
Canberra 6 11222222
Hobart 7 11322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 12323321
Casey 20 45433232
Mawson 26 43333463
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2432 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
24 Jan 18 G0, chance of G1
25 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January
and is current for 23-24 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jan. G0 conditions
were mostly observed over the Antarctic region, with the exceptions
of an isolated period of G1 at Casey and an isolated period of
G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25
Jan, with a chance of G1 conditions on 23-24 Jan due to the combined
effects of possible glancing blows from CMEs first observed on
19-Jan and 20-Jan, and high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole, which is rotating towards a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 23-25 Jan, with a slight chance of depressed conditions
over 23-24 Jan due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
22 January and is current for 23-24 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Southern Australian region
and 25-55% enhanced in the Northern Australian region. Significant
sporadic E was observed across the Southern Australian region
and the majority of the Northern Australian region during local
night. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 23-25 Jan
with more significant enhancements expected for the Northern
Australian region. There is a slight chance of depressed conditions
over 23-24 Jan due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible. Sporadic E is possible during local night,
affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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