[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 22 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 209/160
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 200/152 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jan was at the R0 level
with several C-class flares produced. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3194 (S24W42, beta-gamma), AR3197 (N24E30, beta) and
AR3199 (N17E48, beta) all displayed spot development over the
UT day. AR3190 (S16W27, beta-delta) remains the largest sunspot
region, and the most magnetically complex. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has
recently rotated onto the solar disk at N23E78 and has alpha
magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level over 22-24 Jan. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Jan increased over
the first part of the day and decreased over the second part,
ranging between 551 to 410 km/s, and is currently near 475 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -9
nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was observed
from 21/0304UT to 21/0536UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline over 22 Jan, with an increase expected
over 23-24 Jan due to the combined effects of possible glancing
blows from CMEs first observed on 19-Jan and 20-Jan, and high
speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole, which
is rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 33322222
Cocos Island 7 23222221
Darwin 9 33321222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 11 33322322
Alice Springs 12 33322233
Gingin 10 32322322
Canberra 9 23322222
Hobart 11 23422322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 17 24434332
Casey 32 56533343
Mawson 40 36633364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1101 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 8 G0
23 Jan 14 G0, chance of G1
24 Jan 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January
and is current for 23-24 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 21-Jan. G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Mawson, G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at Casey and G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
22-24 Jan, with a chance of G1 conditions on 23-24 Jan due to
the combined effects of possible glancing blows from CMEs first
observed on 19-Jan and 20-Jan, and high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole, which is rotating towards a
geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 22-24
Jan, with a slight chance of depressed conditions over 23-24
Jan due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Jan were 15-20% enhanced in the Southern
Australian region and 15-35% enhanced in the Northern Australian
region. Significant sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Hobart,
Learmonth and Perth during local night, with small amounts of
sporadic E observed across the Australian region. MUFs are expected
to be around 15% enhanced over 22-24 Jan, with a slight chance
of depressed conditions over 23-24 Jan due to possible geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. Sporadic E is possible
during local night, affecting lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 78400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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