[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 21 10:31:20 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 218/168
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jan was at the R0 level
with several C-class flares produced. The largest flare, with
magnitude of C7.4 at 20/2240UT, was produced by AR3192 (N18W14,
beta-gamma), the next three largest flares C6.7 at 20/0152UT,
C4.8 at 20/1257UT, C5.3 at 20/1407UT were all produced by AR3190
(S16W15, beta-gamma). A slight rise was observed in the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux. This is likely due to a farside event.
There are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and three unnumbered regions. AR3190, AR3194 (S24W30,
beta), AR3196 (N12E17, beta), AR3197 (N24E45, beta), AR3198 (N27E57,
beta) and AR3199 (N17E60, beta) all displayed spot development
over the UT day. AR3190 remains the largest sunspot region, and
the most magnetically complex alongside AR3192. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Despite no M-class flares
over 20-Jan, Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 21-23 Jan, due to the presence of AR3190 and several newly
arrived, developing, sunspot regions. A southwest CME was observed
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 20/1336UT. This CME is associated
with a large filament eruption, visible in SDO, H-alpha and GOES
SUVI imagery from 20/1209UT between S48W21 and S24W60. Another
CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 20/1556UT.
This CME is associated with a C5.3 magnitude flare produced at
20/1407UT from AR3190. Modelling of these CMEs indicates that
a glancing impact with Earth is possible on 24-Jan at 0100UT
+/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Jan declined,
ranging from 556 to 373 km/s, and is currently near 390 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7
nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was observed
from 20/1309UT to 20/1416UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain low to moderate over 21-22 Jan, with an increase expected
on 23-Jan due to the combined effects of a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 19-Jan and high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole, which is rotating
towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12011212
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 12012212
Alice Springs 4 12011212
Gingin 3 11011212
Canberra 3 11011212
Hobart 5 22111212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 11022411
Casey 18 55322222
Mawson 16 43123424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1122 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 12 G0
22 Jan 8 G0
23 Jan 12 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-22 Jan,
there is a slight chance of G1 conditions on 23-Jan due to the
combined effects of a possible glancing blow from a CME first
observed on 19-Jan and high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole, which is rotating towards a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 21-23
Jan, with a slight chance of disturbed conditions on 23-Jan due
to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jan were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Significant sporadic E was observed at Brisbane,
Canberra and Cocos Islands during local night, with small amounts
of sporadic E observed across the Australian region. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 21-23 Jan, with a slight chance of depressed conditions
on 23-Jan due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting
lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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