[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 20 10:31:49 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0403UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 1012UT possible lower European
M1.0 1027UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 219/169
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day was at the R1 level, due to
three low level M-class flares from AR3196 (N12E32, beta), the
largest of which was a M1.7 at 19/1012UT. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and
three unnumbered regions. AR3190 (S16W02, beta-gamma) has shown
some decay in its trailer spots and decreased in magnetic complexity.
AR3192 (N18W00, beta-gamma) has exhibited spot development over
the 24-hour period. AR3196 has shown growth in its leading spot
and some decay in its trailer spot. AR3194 (S24W16, beta) has
shown minor growth over the UT day. Three unnumbered regions are
visible at N21E45 (alpha), N29E60 (beta) and N19E78 (alpha) and
all appear stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 20-22 Jan. A northwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 19/2000UT. This CME
is possibly associated with a small filament eruption at ~N31W52,
visible in H-alpha imagery from 19/1739UT. Initial modelling
indicates this CME is not geoeffective, however further analysis
will be conducted when additional imagery becomes available.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A large filament
remains visible in H-alpha imagery now extending from S36W25
to S24W45 and will continue to be monitored for potential eruptions.
The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Jan declined to background
levels, ranging from 360 to 560 km/s, and is currently near 360
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6
to -8 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was
observed from 19/0243UT to 19/0600UT. The solar wind speed is
expected to increase over 20-22 Jan due to high speed wind stream
effects from a patchy equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11222001
Cocos Island 3 12221000
Darwin 3 11221011
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 12222001
Alice Springs 3 01222001
Gingin 3 11222001
Canberra 3 01222000
Hobart 5 12223010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 02335000
Casey 20 35542221
Mawson 16 24533222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3322 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 10 G0
21 Jan 14 G0
22 Jan 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at all Antarctic sites. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 20-22 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 20-22
Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Jan 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on
18 January and is current for 18-20 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 19-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 45% enhanced in Northern Australia during local
night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane and Townsville. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
over 20-22 Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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