[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 19 10:31:01 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1035UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 220/170
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 218/168 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jan was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.8 flare at 18/1035UT from AR3190 (S15E15, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently ten sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3190 has shown some decay in
its trailer spots but despite this remains the most magnetically
complex region on the disk. AR3191 (N11E03, beta) has shown some
growth in its trailer spots. AR3192 (N17E16, beta) has exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. New sunspot region
AR3196 (N13E48, beta) has shown some growth since appearing on
the disk. An unnumbered region recently appeared at N28E72 (alpha)
and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level,
with a chance of R2 over 19-21 Jan. A partial halo CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 18/1336UT.
No obvious on-disk source was observed with this CME and modelling
indicates it is a farside event and therefore not geoeffective.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A large filament
is currently visible in H-alpha imagery extending from S36W08
to S20W34 and is now in a potentially geoeffective position.
This filament will be monitored for potential eruptions. The
solar wind speed on UT day 18-Jan was elevated with a declining
trend, ranging from 410 to 490 km/s, and is currently near 420
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 15 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -8 nT. A patchy equatorial coronal hole crossed the central
meridian over UT day 18-Jan and is now in the western hemisphere.
The solar wind speed is therefore expected to increase over 19-21
Jan due to high speed wind stream effects from this coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 33323321
Cocos Island 8 23323210
Darwin 12 33323322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 13 33333322
Alice Springs 11 33323312
Gingin 11 33323321
Canberra 12 34323222
Hobart 13 44323221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 33244211
Casey 26 56433322
Mawson 30 65543312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1110 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 16 G0, slight chance G1
20 Jan 10 G0
21 Jan 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Jan. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1-G2
observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 19-21 Jan, with a slight chance of G1 on 19-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 19-21
Jan. Mild HF degradations are possible on 19-Jan at middle to
high latitudes during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 84
Jan 71
Feb 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on
18 January and is current for 18-20 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Jan were near predicted
monthly values to 45% enhanced in Northern Australia during local
night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane and Perth. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 19-21 Jan. Mild degradations due to increased geomagnetic
activity are possible on 19-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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